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Duterte biggest danger to PH since FM – Mar

OZAMIZ CITY, Misamis Occidental – Liberal Party standard-bearer Manuel A. Roxas said here that Martial Law will be revived if Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte is elected president next month.

Roxas said the plan of Duterte to end criminality in the country in just six months makes him a very dangerous president.

“Duterte represents the biggest danger to our country since Ferdinand Marcos. Because what Duterte wants is for him to become the judge, the jury, and executioner,” Roxas said.

For as long as Duterte continues to dodge the prodding of his rivals and various groups to come up with a comprehensive anti-criminality platform, Roxas said the country would be heading to the era of extra-judicial killings and extra-judicial disappearances.

The tendency of Duterte to be a harsh president, according Roxas, is reflected in the way the Davao City mayor is dealing with the data and counter-arguments which disputes the claims that Davao City is the most peaceful city in the country and included in the most peaceful in the world.

Roxas said that when he presented a Philippine National Police data showing that Davao City was third in homicide, second in rape, and No. 1 in murder form 2010 to 2015, he received a tongue-lashing rather than counter-arguments and presentation of other data.

  • alexander lean daloga-og


    ATTY. JV Bautista must be dreaming! For one, he said that the upcoming elections will be between VP Jejomar Binay and Sec. Mar Roxas. Reasons? Because VP Binay has already CALCULATED the support of at least 12.5 POOR Filipinos. He’s got political machinery to boot and besides, he has already walloped the Liberal Party candidate before.

    LET ME deal with the TRUE state on the grounds first. In 2010, Makati City Mayor Binay was running against a more survey-popular Sen. Roxas. It really helped that former Pres. Joseph Estrada was his presidential runningmate who could still command popular votes despite his plunder conviction. Mayor Binay has more than 500 sisterhood cities and municipalities earlier established methodically by the Makati City government for purposes of political connections. And, he has the Boy Scouts of the Philippines as well as his college fraternity in UP, the Alpha Phi Omega, behind his bid for the vice-presidency.

    SO FROM barely 10% a year before the actual polls, he overtook Sen. Roxas by a little less than 1% (37.2% to 37% / SWS May 2-3 Survey). In the exit polls, Mayor Binay even edged out Sen. Roxas by over 3% (42.52% to 39.17% / SWS Exit Poll). In the end, Mayor Binay settled at 41.65% with a nominal vote numbering around 14.64 million over Sen. Roxas’ 39.58% with 13.91 million votes. Against this electoral backdrop in 2010, Mayor Jejomar C. Binay Sr. rose to become the 15th vice-president of the country.

    BUT WILL his electoral machinery hold through this time around? Based on sound calculations, I DON’T think so. His latest SWS poll survey standing CANNOT support the UNA contention of a rematch between VP Binay and his peeve opponent Sec. Roxas. Let’s take a look at their poll numbers: As of the March 30-April 2 SWS quarterly survey, VP Binay scored 20% while Sec. Roxas got around 18%. The new frontrunner Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte garnered 27% while Sen. Grace Poe nosedived to around 23%. For the ordinary Filipino voters, the poll survey standing among candidates seems to INDICATE definitive electoral chances. Among veteran campaigners, however, that’s far from the truth. Political machinery STILL matters especially in a very tight electoral contest.

    BY TRADITION, the established political parties (usually the ruling as well as opposition) have built-in electoral advantages. Prof. Rigoberto Tiglao, a political think-tank under the Arroyo administration, explained at length the more definitive points creditable to the parties with fully-rolled out machinery across the country. He is in fact very liberal about giving the ruling as well as the opposition parties at MOST 10% for political machinery alone and ONLY 5% to the independent albeit more popular wannabes like Mayor Duterte and Sen. Poe.

    HENCE, IF we factor in the 10% value added from the established political machinery of VP Binay, he’ll more likely obtain 10% more in the actual share of votes cast. In effect, he’ll get at least 30%. Meanwhile, Sec. Roxas will settle at 28% or 2% less than his erstwhile rival’s probable votes. Almost a year ago, we have made a tentative plot on the vice president’s chances to be elected. At that time, Mayor Duterte’s numbers were painfully negligible. Then, he had not made up his mind yet. So to cut to the chase, VP Binay NOW (with Mayor Duterte in the equation) will most PROBABLY obtain at least 12.15 million votes as opposed to Sec. Roxas’ 11.34 million votes. NOTE that if it were a rematch between these two establishment candidates, VP Binay will lead Sec. Roxas by a margin of 810,000 votes. Again, the fundamental premise here is a REMATCH election NOT a presidential contests of at least 4 major contenders!

    BUT THE prevailing reality is TOTALLY different. This is where Atty. Bautista’s calculation FAILS. For the TRUTH is, ONLY Mayor Duterte has the strongest electoral momentum compared to the other candidates. The UPWARD SURGE is in fact bewildering and extra-ordinary. Mayor Duterte’s numbers have consistently increased through time until he unilaterally SNAGGED out Sen. Poe’s lead in the latest polling. The other survey outfits likewise posted similar results. The latest Pulse Asia surveys (March 29-April 3) have Mayor Duterte ahead of Sen. Poe by 5% or 30% to the latter’s 25% while the Standard-Laylo Survey Report placed the mayor at a solo lead over the lady senator. Even Ed Malay’s Issues and Advocacy Center took note of Mayor Duterte’s resurgent rally in the polls. Although the survey methodology is quite unorthodox, the Seven-Eleven’s over 1,500 outlets nationwide have Mayor Duterte leading the others by the miles!

    THIS IS not to downplay Atty. Bautista’s forecasting abilities but only to set straight the current poll standing among presidential candidates in the race. So when he said that it will be a rematch between VP Binay and Sec. Roxas, red flags automatically surfaced all over. In short, VP Binay’ camp is already counting the eggs even before they are hatched! UNA has probably forgotten that VP Binay’s chances have seriously taken an irreversible dip since the revival of the corruption cases against him and his family. TODAY, Mayor Duterte’s standing in the preferential surveys appears SOLID and there seems to be no indication that his numbers will suffer a RELAPSE!

    THUS IF the elections were to be held today, Mayor Duterte will lead VP Binay by approximately 810,000 votes, the latter’s claimed lead over Sec. Roxas. Relative to Sen.Poe, Mayor Duterte will have a commanding lead of over 1.62 million votes. Even if Iglesia ni Cristo, with over 1.3 million command votes, endorses Sen. Poe, the resurgent frontrunner Mayor Duterte will STILL lead the senator by the slimmest of margin in the entire history of Philippine presidential elections. Note here that ONLY 5% of political machinery points are added to the total votes for either Mayor Duterte and Sen. Poe. Both have only recently forged their grassroots networks and maybe, Sen. Poe has a slight advantage on this score due to the NPC endorsement. The NPC, a political party founded by crony capitalist cum coco-levy thief Danding Cojuangco, currently has 2 senators, 47 representatives, 14 governors and 22 city mayors, making it as one of the 3 dominant political parties in this elections.

    SO WHY will VP Binay lose to Mayor Duterte by less than a million votes? For one thing, the projected 12.1 million poor Filipino votes credited by Atty. Bautista no longer represent the vice-president’s electoral base today. Mayor Duterte and Sen. Poe have already broken VP Binay’s class D and E voters since the start of the campaign. Even the electoral figure cited by UNA party is OUTDATED. The total population back in 2010 is 97 million with around 50.65 million voters. The latest COMELEC data of biometrically-registered voters numbered around 54.6 million and over HALF or 52% belong to the millennial or young voters. More than a qualified majority of this new set of young voters, or nearly 3.95 million, have signified their support to Mayor Duterte while the rest are parcelled out proportionally to Sen. Poe, Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Sec. Roxas and the least, VP Binay.

    ANOTHER REASON is the OFW’s rising interest to participate in the presidential elections. As of the latest count by the poll body, around 1.3 million overseas Filipinos have registered or approximately 400,000 more voting OFWs. Based on the on-line surveys (December 15-20, 2015) conducted by the Dubai-based expats magazine, Illustrado, an overwhelming number or 87% intend to vote for Mayor Duterte. Respondents represent 5,000 survey samples from 92 countries. Roughly computed at an extrapolated 23.27% voters’ turn-out (based on the 16.11% voters’ turn-out for 2013), Mayor Duterte will most like garner around 302,510 OFW votes. But that’s not the ONLY point. The fact that OFW votes have multiplier effects to their respective families back in the Philippines, the number of electoral votes in favor of the mayor will go as high as 907,530 votes – enough to sweep VP Binay, a former Presidential Adviser on OFW Concerns, AWAY from the palace!

    AS CEBU COMES in droves for Mayor Duterte, VP Binay’s chances further become NIL. Just yesterday, one of the UNA founding members Rep. Gwen Garcia, FINALLY joined the bandwagon for Cebu’s most probable president-in-waiting, Mayor Duterte, and DITCHED VP Binay for good! The OVERWHELMING clamor is so intense to ignore, if not CONTRADICT, she said. A couple of weeks ago, former Pres. Estrada, an UNA coalition stalwart, likewise DITCHED VP Binay for Sen. Poe. More local politicians are now forming a bee line towards PDP-Laban, former Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr.’s party, and swear to DITCH the vice-president as well.

    ACROSS ALL geographic sectors, the Filipino voters are likewise ENERGIZED by the prospect of a Duterte presidency. What used to be VP Binay’s electoral base in Mindanao is now a memory – a much-glorified thing of the past – that’s best remembered by him in the years to come. Even the SOLID north is NO LONGER upbeat about him, as Mayor Duterte and Sen. Poe take turns clobbering him in their respective campaign sorties. Thus whatever is left of the DARK horse in the race is now turning gray – moribund, beaten, sinking and gasping for its last dying breath as the actual moment of reckoning gets closer by the day!

    BACK IN campus, I admire Atty. Bautista for his fire brand sagacity, his grant-no-quarter mien in the face of baton and/or gun-wielding cops during parliamentary rallies. In my pantheon of activist heroes, he is right there near the top – BRAZEN and BOLD like TROKSKY and LENIN. I saw him rose to the podium in the Lower House to fight for the oppressed while I sat at the gallery totally mesmerized. I saw him pound the table without his lawyer’s suit to illustrate a point and even witnessed him debate with some distinguished senators. Through it all, I admired his guts like no other UNTIL now.

    FROM WHERE I stand, Atty. Bautista has sunk lower than what he deserves. His blind loyalty to VP Binay is incredulously of manic proportion. He will seize every ounce of opportunity to extol the questionable VIRTUES of his candidate. Legally, it is his right as counsel for the veep; politically, it is his right as UNA spokesman. BUT morally, it is NOT his right to BURY the statistical TRUTH in the guise of scientific analysis. He has GONE too far in his frenzied drive to deceive the voters and for all we know, even himself and the vice-president.

    THE WAY it is right now, it seems NOTHING can STOP the FIGHTINGEST frontrunner to take the presidency by storm! As pundits are wont to say it, anyone can prevent a flood from swamping the entire metropolitan Manila, but NO ONE – not even Sen. Grace Poe, Sec. Mar Roxas or VP Binay himself- can PREVENT Mayor Rodrigo Roa Duterte from RISING to SEIZE the iron throne!

  • alexander lean daloga-og

    BEFORE, Mindanao and the Vizayas cry for a SOLID SOUTH. Now, LUZON cries for a SOLID NORTH, too. SOON, it will be SOLID PHILIPPINES for DUTERTE!

  • alexander lean daloga-og


    VP Binay is out of his depth. He said that in the upcoming polls, history will repeat itself. He, in fact, is DELUDED to believe in his own lie: That ultimately ONLY he and Sec. Mar Roxas will SLUG it out to the finish line.

    HOW can the Filipino voters be ever so STUPID? Like dogs that return to eat their own vomit, are we gonna take back what we ACTUALLY wanted to evict? Are we ACTUALLY prepared to admit a thief back into our good graces?

    I DON’T think so. Most Filipinos are wiser now than 6 years ago when a fraud sneaked into OUR government ONLY to steal plunderously! AND yes, there’s gonna be a rematch between him and the former interior secretary – for the LAST place!

  • alexander lean daloga-og


    AS CEBU COMES in droves for Mayor Duterte, VP Binay’s chances further become NIL. Just yesterday, one of the UNA founding members Rep. Gwen Garcia, FINALLY joined the bandwagon for Cebu’s most probable president-in-waiting, Mayor Duterte, and DITCHED VP Binay for good! The OVERWHELMING clamor is so intense to ignore, if not CONTRADICT, she said. A couple of weeks ago, former Pres. Estrada, an UNA coalition stalwart, likewise DITCHED VP Binay for Sen. Poe. More local politicians are now forming a bee line towards PDP-Laban, former Sen. Aquilino Pimentel Jr.’s party, and swear to DITCH the vice-president as well.

    Now QUESTION: How can VP Binay repeat his electoral victory in 2010 without his political allies behind him? Like what Mayor Duterte often asks his presidential opponents: Is Binay on DRUGS?

  • alexander lean daloga-og


    THE WAY it is right now, it seems NOTHING can STOP the FIGHTINGEST frontrunner to take the presidency by storm! As pundits are wont to say it, anyone can prevent a flood from swamping the entire Luzon, but NO ONE – not even Sen. Grace Poe, Sec. Mar Roxas or VP Binay himself- can PREVENT Mayor Rodrigo Roa Duterte from RISING to SEIZE the iron throne!

  • alexander lean daloga-og


    UP PROF. Randy David wrote a PDI article yesterday to express his amazement over the president’s high public satisfaction rating and his candidate’s poor performance in the poll surveys. To me, a highly regarded sociologist like him should not be surprised about this reality on the ground at all. In fact, his conclusion about the current electoral politics as well as the mode of governance in the county speaks a lot about his true political beliefs. What ACTUALLY baffled him is the clear albeit imminent possibility that Sec. Mar Roxas, the ruling party standard bearer, is about to lose BIG-TIME in this presidential elections.

    AT NO point in the presidential race did Roxas ever take the lead. The highest that he has achieved in the poll surveys is second, statistically that is, but NOT first. At least VP Jejomar Binay and Sen. Grace Poe have been there at the top; they swapped places from time to time UNTIL the true FRONTRUNNER Mayor Rodrigo Duterte surges ahead. The Standard’s Laylo Reports (March 26-April 1) places Mayor Duterte at 30% ahead of Sen. Poe’s 27%. Far third is Sec. Roxas at 21%. Dr. Ed Malay’s Issues and Advocacy Center (IAC) surveys reveal almost similar results where Mayor Duterte scores 29% over Sen. Poe’s 24%. This time though, Sec. Roxas is fourth with 19%.

    JUST fresh off the oven is Social Weather Stations (SWS) quarterly survey (March 30-April 2). This particular survey though is unique in at least two significant ways: It doesn’t only take public pulse in a snap as it is a quarterly preferential polling, it likewise covers the two presidential debates where Mayor Duterte is hailed as netizens’ early favorite together with Sec. Roxas and Sen. Poe. More, it seems to argue AGAINST the personal, hence biased, connections of the lady senator to Dr. Mahar Mangahas who is an uncle on her adopted father FPJ’s side. STILL, the seemingly UNSTOPPABLE deluge or momentum goes to Mayor Duterte who, for the FIRST time, snagged out the frontrunnership from Sen. Poe. Both garnered respectable scores at 27% and 23% respectively. In this same survey, Sec. Roxas is undoubtedly the cellar dweller!

    WHAT then could be the most probable reasons for Sec. Roxas’ lame-duck performance? With majority of over 18,000 elective national and local government officials marching behind the administration party, why does he STILL dawdle at the bottom? Are we seeing a repeat of then House Speakers Jose de Venecia (1992-1998/2001-2008) and Ramon Mitra Jr. (1987-1992) who both individually ran for president and at certain points were the favored bets of the incumbent presidents YET ultimately lost in the polls? Prof. David saw the disconnect with Pres. BS Aquino’s high satisfaction rating at the twilight of his term (52%) with the pre-election poll standing of Sec. Roxas. He is definitely correct. But let me take a different tack on his survey performance vis-a-vis the public satisfaction rating of the president:

    FIRST, the aggregate DISSATISFACTION rating of Pres. Aquino is 48%. To the ordinary man in the streets, the number itself speaks volumes about the lack of credible belief to the Aquino government’s accomplishments for the last five or so years. We recall how the Filipino voters gave the president the highest electoral mandate in history. Then, there was so much jubilation for the political victory of democracy icon Cory Aquino’s son who rode upon the wave of sympathy votes owing to her death. Necro-politics worked a lot of wonders at the time, much as the Kennedys did in the U.S.

    BUT getting more than a majority of satisfaction rating doesn’t always mean that ONLY a handful few Filipinos are dissatisfied. VP Binay garnered a relatively high public satisfaction rating, too, but his numbers in the polls leave so much room to be desired. He used to lord it over at the top. NOW he is far becoming more of a whimper than a BANG! This scenario could only tell us a few things BUT strategically prominent is the fact that a QUALIFIED majority of those DISSATISFIED about the president’s performance for the past couple of years are taking it against the administration party’s anointed candidate. Thus political machinery and grassroots connections can only do so much to propel Roxas to the presidency.

    SPEAKERS De Venecia and Mitra have their own political machineries, too, but their winning opponents were just too popular among the mass voters. It didn’t help that then Defense Sec. Fidel Ramos was Pres. Cory Aquino’s anointed. Ramos had his own campaign organization, the police and the military, doing the ground works for him WHICH ultimately trounced a hugely popular Miriam Defensor-Santiago. But he was elected president on a mere plurality votes UNLIKE Pres. Aquino. In the case of Speaker De Venecia, Pres. Ramos’ endorsement failed to break the momentum for then VP Joseph Estrada who had a resounding victory in the polls.

    PROF. David’s reality of unfulfilled expectations indeed trash Roxas’ survey performances since the start of the election period until weeks before the elections. The Filipinos’ high hopes came down crushing on the Liberal Party candidate, since corruption STILL runs amuck in high places while correlatively, poverty breeds over 26 million more hungry mouths across the country. Pres. Aquino’s much-vaunted and consistent high GDP growth rates ACTUALLY failed to trickle down to the masses. The failure itself breeds mass dissent and the upcoming polls are the most convenient way to take revenge! The Kidapawan farmers’ massacre and the most recent bloodbath in Basilan could be the tipping point for Sec. Roxas’ incipient pull away from the top because the Filipino people can no longer tolerate glaring ineptitude and severe LACK of empathy to the plight of the ordinary people by the president and, in effect, by the ruling party candidate himself.

    SECOND, the lack of a strong party system is a direct consequence of the multi-party structure erected by no less than Pres. Cory Aquino herself. In the guise of democratizing access to power, her hand-picked constitutional framers envisioned a party for all as opposed to Pres. Ferdinand Marcos’ party of one – the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL). The evil sought to be prevented is the monolithic concentration of power in the hands of ruling party members.

    IRONICALLY, the new multi-party system FAILED to stamp out the evil of monolithic power by the political and economic elites BECAUSE political dynasty is very much around. Since 1987 up to now, democratic access to political power remains to be a pipe dream for those who have the undoubted TALENT and the political WILL to serve the people. Today, crony capitalism is being eclipsed by crony politics where the most capable candidates are brushed aside in favor of the most popular. The classic example is Sen. Poe. Her popularity alone makes her a natural magnet for CRONY privateers like former Ambassador Danding Cojuangco and of course, Pres. Aquino himself.

    DESPITE having endorsed Sec. Roxas, Pres. Aquino is widely believed to be supporting the lady senator as well. This highly DYSFUNCTIONAL political reality is expected nonetheless. It’s just too treacherous, manipulative and unjust. Pres. Cory Aquino knew she’d fail on this account BUT she did not prevent failure from happening. The son, too, knew what’s causing this failure BUT opted instead to let the next administration rectify the same. He has all the time in the world to AMEND the freedom constitution her mother had proudly bequeathed to the Filipino people but sadly, he DOESN’T have what it takes to be DECISIVE and STRONG, or to rise above the challenge, as usual!

    NOW he is reaping the whirlwind of political storm about to unleash its fury. His well-known bailiwick in Cebu, for instance, is in fact being balkanized by a resurgent Southern mayor. Although more than half of the local officials sport a liberal insignia on their chests, their hearts ACTUALLY belong to another. Mayor Duterte of the revived PDP-Laban is their current flame. It may take more than cash to compel the Liberals in Cebu NOT to cross-over to the other camp. Turn-coatism is the norm there, and Roxas miserably fails to stand as its beneficiary! At the outset, he has the whole of Vizayas at the palm of his hand – but not anymore. Mayor Duterte is taking all the spoils as they slip dramatically out of his firm control. Obviously no one can blame Gov. Junjun Davide for the massive defections to the mayor’s camp. The blame can be laid at the DOORSTEPS of the presidential palace itself!

    THIRD, the growing disenchantment of politics in the country is this ruling administration’s creation, too. In its Contract with the Filipino People – the blueprint of Tuwid na Daan – the president vowed to pursue a no-nonsense anti-corruption program. It’s popular slogan says it all: “Kung Walang Corrupt, Walang Mahirap!” By and in itself, the contract truly resonated throughout the campaign of Pres. Aquino. It is the same blueprint of governance that Roxas intends to pursue as president.

    IT WOULD be most unfair not to credit Pres. Aquino for the initiative. He in fact made a traction in that department. Some high and mighty lawmakers currently locked up in jail serve as testament to his anti-corruption advocacy. But his initial success is just that – INITIAL. He did not push further. He is practically content with seeing a few of the opposition politicians behind bar WHILE most of his political allies who likewise squandered scarce public funds are out there in the electoral field, running again.

    SELECTIVE justice seems to inflict this present administration, too. Even the watchdog of government – Ombudsman -is being used as a potent tool for the vilification of some officials, not the least of whom is a man long known dead BUT whose case is exhumed to further derail the chances of some politicians. The Filipino people know legal chicanery when they see one. The revival of the case against former Makati City administrator Nicanor Santiago Jr. is perceived to be an anti-VP Binay stunt to further pull his ratings down WHILE Sen.Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s 10-year old corruption case is likewise being UPGRADED to plunder just to STEM the tide of his rising poll popularity.

    WE commend Ombudsman Conchita Carpio-Morales for doing her job. At least, she is true to her mandate as constitutionally prescribed. Yet, she could have been more circumspect and just in investigating and prosecuting cases being filed. BUT she has overzealously done it to others but continues to shrug off filing legal complaints against the ruling party allies. Pres. Aquino’s drive to weed out the corrupt thus becomes a mockery of his straight path governance. The public saw through it; the ruse is just too palpable to be just swept under the rug.

    NOW even coffee-shop talks are awashed with expletives and curses blaming injustice and impunity that Pres. Aquino and his anointed candidate represent. Consequently then, continuity of Daang Matuwid is far off the public preferential radar. In fact, in the array of presidential choices. ALL, except Mayor Duterte, fail to spark any interest at all to TRY a new leader with an equally new perspective to bring about TRUE CHANGE in our government. So, yes, Prof. David is right: The battle now shifts to the NEW up and coming leader with a raised clenched-fist against a shadow Manchurian candidate of the incumbent president. UNFORTUNATELY for Sec. Roxas, the political wind blows not in his favor!