By NINO LUCES • AARON RECUENCO
LEGAZPI – A 51-year-old former farmer who lives on the foot of Mt. Mayon doesn’t believe that a major eruption will take place, citing the absence of signs that usually precede it.
“Experience ko bilang nakatira talaga dito, maraming senyales na ipinapakita yan (Mayon) tuwing mag-eerupt yan,” said Caloy Perez, a resident of Barangay Mabinit.
Perez said he lost his father to raging lava during the 1993 major eruption.
“Noong 1993, biglaan ‘yun. Namatay ‘yung tatay ko dahil sa lava habang siya ay nasa sakahan. Hindi na naming nakita ‘yung bangkay niya,” Perez recounted.
Perez, who is among those evacuated to safer grouds, went on to describe the previous eruptions.
“Yung iba dumadagungdong muna, saka may lindol. Maya-maya, bubuga na ‘ung abo. ‘Yung ngayon, wala rin masyado, bigla na lang bumuga,” he said.
Perez also cited another sign that is absent from the current situation.
“Dati, may mga wild animals na bumababa galing diyan sa Mayon, pero ngayon wala, kahit ngayon na bumubuga na siya,” he explained.
Perez, who now earns a living serving as guide for tourists, believes the situation won’t deteriorate.
“Wala na. Normal na yan. Ayoko lang pangunahan ‘yung Phivolcs, pero sa aking experience, pag ganyan, wala na yan,” he said.
“Sa ngayon kasi, makikita mo, may ash fall, mamaya wala na naman. Hindi tulad ng mga dating malalakas na pagsabog, talagang diretso siya.”
Perez’s observation was echoed by volcano experts who said there is no indication that the rumblings could lead to a major eruption.
However, Undersecretary Renato Solidum, head of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), said the rumblings could last up to three months.
“The current activity can be described as continued lava eruption or non-explosive lava eruption,” said Solidum in a press briefing here yesterday.
Solidum is referring to the continuous flow of glowing lava in the gullies which is visible especially at night.
“The current condition, with our monitoring of earthquake and gas ground deformation so far indicates no measurable change up to the present so we will maintain it at Alert Level Number 3.
Alert Level 3 means high unrest and that magma is closer to the crater. If the activities further intensify, Alert Level 4 could be hoisted which means hazardous eruption is possible within days.
Alert Level 5, on the other hand, means hazardous eruption is ongoing.
Solidum, however, cautioned against complacency since Mayon’s activities are unpredictable at this point.
Based on the data of the Albay provincial government, there are more or less 40,000 evacuees in 32 evacuation centers in the cities of Ligao, Tabao and Legazpi; and the towns of Malilipot, Sto. Domingo, Daraga, Camalig and Guinobatan.
Solidum said that they are also considering the other scenario wherein the Mayon activities would escalate.
“This can happen if lava has a lot of gas and if the lava gas covered the vent and other conduit of the volcano and this cold prevent the gas to escape,” said Solidum.
If it happens, Solidum said it could lead to hazardous eruption since it could lead to over pressurization.
Most of the evacuees here are concerned not only about the hazardous eruption but also of how long are they going to stay in the evacuation centers.
Solidum said that while he understands the concern of the local residents especially those near the six kilometer danger zone and the extended seven- kilometer danger zone, he said there is no indication of a hazardous eruption in Mayon’s current activity.
“The major eruption dated 1814 and 1897, we do not see similar indications,” he said.