Thirty-two provinces, mostly in Luzon, have been affected by dry spell or drought even before El Niño has been fully established in the tropical Pacific Region.
Based on the recent observations of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain at El Niño levels “but atmospheric indicators, such as cloudiness, trade winds, and southern oscillation index do not show evidence for El Niño to become fully established.”
But whether or not a weak El Niño develops, PAGASA said impacts may still occur in some areas of the country.
PAGASA reported that 15 provinces have been affected by drought, while 17 areas experienced dry spell in the past few months.
Drought is defined as three consecutive months of way below normal (60 percent reduction from average) or five consecutive months of below normal (21 to 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall condition.
The 15 provinces that were affected by drought are all in Luzon, namely Abra, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan.
Meanwhile, dry spell is described as three consecutive months of below normal (21 to 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall conditions or two consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall conditions.
Seventeen provinces (12 in Luzon, three in Visayas, and two in Mindanao) experienced dry spell. These are Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Metro Manila, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon, and Oriental Mindoro.
“Potential meteorological dry spell to drought conditions is likely in most areas of western Luzon and some areas in Visayas and Mindanao in the coming months,” PAGASA said.
By February, generally way below to below normal rainfall conditions are likely over most parts of Luzon and Visayas, while rainfall condition will be near normal in most parts of Mindanao. (Ellalyn V. Ruiz)