A weak El Niño condition is now established and will likely result to below normal rainfall conditions in different parts of the country in the coming months.
Based on the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration’s latest climate monitoring and analyses, the unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific since November 2018 is most likely to develop into a full-blown El Niño event.
El Niño usually lasts for eight to 12 months and occurs every two to seven years.
PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section officer-in-charge Ana Liza Solis said prior impacts of the El Niño were observed in several provinces in Luzon and Mindanao since September last year.
Dry spell and drought due to lower than average rainfall have been evident in the past few months, she added.
Drought is defined as three consecutive months of way below normal (60 percent reduction from average) or five consecutive months of below normal (21 to 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall condition.
On the other hand, dry spell is described as three consecutive months of below normal (21 to 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall conditions or two consecutive months of way below normal (more than 60 percent reduction from average) rainfall conditions.
By March, PAGASA said most parts of Luzon will likely receive below normal rainfall conditions, and by April, generally way below to below normal rainfall condition is seen in most parts of Luzon and Visayas and near normal in most parts of Mindanao.
Near normal rainfall conditions in most parts of northern Luzon and Mindanao is expected by May. Meanwhile, most parts of Visayas will have below normal rainfall condition. (Ellalyn V. Ruiz)