The United States is more likely to be involved in a “shooting war” in the disputed South China Sea than the Philippines but the latter would be embroiled in such a conflict just the same because of its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with Washington, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said yesterday.
Lorenzana said the treaty needed to be re-examined to clear ambiguities that could cause chaos and confusion during a crisis. He cited China’s aggressive seizure in the mid-1990s of a Philippine-claimed reef, saying “The US did not stop it.”
The Philippine proposal for the treaty’s review was among the key topics when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with President Duterte and other officials during an overnight visit to Manila last week.
The treaty behind one of the longest-standing security alliances in Asia calls on the US and the Philippines to come to each other’s defense against an external attack. In the past, the Philippines has tried to clarify whether the treaty would apply if its forces come under attack in a disputed region like the South China Sea, where it has been locked in tense territorial conflicts with China and four other governments.
Pompeo assured the Philippines during his visit that America will come to its defense if its forces, aircraft, or ships come under armed attack in the South China Sea, in the first such public US assurance in recent memory.
The top American diplomat assured that the US is committed to ensuring the South China Sea remains open to all kinds of navigation and that “China does not pose a threat” of closing the disputed sea lanes.
Lorenzana said US forces, which have stepped up so-called freedom of navigation patrols in the strategic waterway, would more likely end up getting involved in an armed conflict than the Philippines, which he foresees would not engage any country in a war in the contested territories.
“The United States, with the increased and frequent passage of its naval vessels in the West Philippine Sea, is more likely to be involved in a shooting war,” Lorenzana said in a statement, using the Philippine name for the South China Sea.
“In such a case and on the basis of the Mutual Defense Treaty, the Philippines will be automatically involved,” Lorenzana said.
“It is not the lack of reassurance that worries me. It is being involved in a war that we do not seek and do not want,” Lorenzana said.
The long-seething territorial disputes are a key irritant between Washington and Beijing, which has turned several disputed barren reefs into islands with runways and other military facilities. The US has declared that the peaceful resolution of the disputes and freedom of navigation and overflight in the contested areas are in the US national interest.
In addition to China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Brunei have overlapping claims in the strategic waters. US Navy ships have sailed close to Chinese-occupied islands to assert freedom of navigation, provoking angry protests from China and tense moments between the rival naval forces.
