A normal onset of the wet or rainy season in the country is seen by the first half of June despite the possible persistence of a weak El Niño in the next three months, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration.
PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section-Climatology and Agrometeorology Division officer-in-charge Ana Liza Solis said the weak El Niño, which has prevailed since February, will continue through the June to August period.
“It is likely that El Niño conditions will continue until June-July-August with a 70 percent probability. It also has a chance to continue until the end of 2019 at weak El Niño level but with high uncertainty as of the moment,” she pointed out.
But even if the El Niño will persist in the coming months, Solis said the southwest monsoon or “habagat season “will still come to pass.”
PAGASA senior weather specialist Rusy Abastillas said there is no delay in the onset of rainy season this year. She cited that the onset of rainy season was delayed only twice during the past 14 El Niño years.
Abastillas said the normal onset of rainy season is between the second half of May and first half of June. Rainy season last year officially began on June 8.
By June, the amount of rainfall will be generally near normal except for patches of below average rainfall over Apayao, Ilocos Norte, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Tarlac, and Zambales.
By July, generally near normal to above normal rainfall is expected over most parts of Luzon and Visayas while rainfall will be generally below normal over most of Mindanao, including southern Visayas.
Solis said there is a possibility that the number of days with rain over the country will be above average from August to September. (Ellalyn V. Ruiz)
