LESS than a week before the British parliamentary elections on Thursday, December 12, there is a growing uncertainty about the opinion polls supposed to predict how the British will vote for members of the incoming Parliament.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson had called for elections in hopes that it would give his Conservative Party a bigger majority, so he could make good on his promise for a clean break out of the European Union (EU). He decided to call for elections when he could not get enough support for his plans for the break. Even some members of his own party, it appeared, were not for leaving the EU.
Polls had failed to accurately call the last two British elections and recent studies show that so many British voters – estimated at about half of the electorate – are now undecided “floating voters.” The elections are to pick Members of Parliament (MPs) on their individual merits – much like our elections for congressmen. But one issue seems to have risen lately in importance to British voters, an issue which may well influence their choices – Brexit, British exit from the European Union which it joined way back in 1973 when it was still called European Communities.
Against the majority Conservative Party’s stand for a swift exit, to carry out the referendum in 1973 by a narrow vote of 17,410,742 against 16,141,241, the main opposition party – Labor – wants another referendum. And some other parties for staying with the union.
We will know soon enough – after December 12 whether the British are really determined to leave the European Union or they need to have another referendum. The issue has so divided the British nation, with the Scots and the Northern Irish for staying in the union and the English and Welsh well divided.
The elections, we hope, will also help restore the role of opinion polls in democratic governance. Apart from elections, opinion polls are a means to enable officials of governments what the nation believes and how it feels about certain issues.
Today, according to our own opinion polls in the Philippines, President Duterte enjoys high public support even when he seems to take excessive action or voices excessive views. That is because, we believe, the Filipino nation wants decisive action on long-unsolved problems and issues, rather than allow so many problems to worsen as in the past – like the drug problem, corruption in so many government offices, the inaction of so many local government units that allowed the misuse of good roads that brought about today’s traffic chaos.
Soon enough, as he nears the end of his six-year term, opinion polls will help President Duterte and other national leaders to make decisions and take actions needed by the country. Opinion polls will also help guide in the choice of the next leaders of the country, and in the direction the nation must take in those years. We thus value opinion polls, for they serve to guide democratic leaders and keep them from taking unilateral action that goes against the national interest.
We trust that the ongoing events in Great Britain and elsewhere in the world will validate the reliability of well-designed and well-assessed opinion surveys as useful tools for democratic governance.
