EVERYONE was greeting happy New Year when 2020 entered. There was so much jubilation and there are expectations of a looming good fortune ahead. Of course, these are predictable developments that happen redundantly with each coming year.
But, amid optimism, the events that have unfolded in recent weeks carry caveats that, unless addressed aptly, can create socio-economic tension with ramifications that may drastically affect our upbeat anticipations. On Jan. 3, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, recognized as Iran’s ‘military genius,’ died in U.S. hands. An American precision drone delivered the death warrant.
The complications that come with this event are multifarious, and the implications are more pronounced for the overseas Filipino workers outside Iran which, official labor department figures show, number anywhere close to four million! Easily, moving them out of countries in the Middle East that are friendly to the Americans can be financially dreadful.
Beyond Middle East, though, the Iran crisis can expand exponentially unless the United Nations adopts a critical diplomatic approach that will satisfy Iran’s cry for blood. And even if the issue is partially resolved, the impact it will have on Filipinos depending for livelihood in the US and Middle East will ruin much of the economic stability we have built based on the annual remittances OFWs send to their families in the country.
But the larger impact would be in the rise in joblessness, which is turn will translate into illegal recruitment, human trafficking, prostitution, slave labor, deaths, and a host of other issues that for decades have threatened our laborers abroad.
Still, one of two biggest issues to factor in if the conflict escalates is on how fast we can repatriate hundreds of thousands of Filipinos without help from countries aligned with the U.S. Seeking help from the Americans and Middle Easterners known for their anti-Iran stance without doubt will earn Tehran’s ire and can result in even bloodier aftermaths.
On top of the major issues the Philippines must confront in case of escalation, is the choking of the 39-km Hormuz Strait where over a sixth of the world’s oil and a third of the global liquified natural gas production are ferried through. That possibility, if finally put into action, will have ruinous impact worldwide and almost likely explode into a global conflict.
The tension the Iran crisis has so far created is slowly being felt by the national government. While there are only 1,600 Filipino expats residing in Iran, the reactions raised by countries allied with Tehran have not been reassuring. Worse, Gen. Suleimani’s successor, in echoing the order of the Ayatollah, wants nothing but revenge.
