An extension of the enhanced or modified community quarantine would help flatten the curve of the COVID-19 cases in the country, a recent study from the University of the Philippines showed.
According to the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team, if no intervention was done after the month-long enhanced community quarantine on April 12, the peak of the confirmed cases in the country is estimated to be seen by the end of April to June.
The team, which is mostly composed of mathematicians across different UP campuses, also projected that at least 140,000 up to 550,000 people will be infected by the disease in Metro Manila when left on its own.
These figures, the team explained, include those undetected, mild, and asymptomatic cases “comprising probably 80 percent of the total.”
“A significant proportion of this estimate will not be detected unless they are tested. Hence, these estimates can guide testing capacity requirements for the succeeding months,” the group said.
Based on the study released last Monday, the team analyzed three possible scenarios after the scheduled lifting of the Luzon-wide ECQ on April 13 – no interventions, modified community quarantine, and continuation of the enhanced community quarantine.
In the graph prepared by the team, the scenario of no interventions after the supposed lifting of the ECQ would yield a curve with the highest possible peak estimated to be observed by end of April up to June.
A modified community quarantine, based on the graph, would also yield a peak but much lower than if there were no interventions, while extending the ECQ, without excluding particular areas, would flatten the curve the most.
The team emphasized that non-medical interventions may help control the further transmission of the virus and flatten the curve for our healthcare system to cope with cases on infected individuals.
These measures include work and school shutdown, requiring to use face masks even homemade masks with filter, frequent washing of hands, and social distancing. (Alexandria San Juan)
