THE economic blow to the nation of the COVID-19 pandemic is understandably best expressed in the effect on big industries, on tourism and travel, on exports, and on the Gross National Product.
The national figures are impressive. They pose a big problem for the government, including a big drop in taxes and other income. When these are totaled at the end of the year, they will be compared with those of previous years as well as the figures of other nations.
A research study undertaken by United Kingdom think tank Oxford Economics has projected the Philippine economy to contract by 5 percent this year, with two of its fellow ASEAN nations suffering even bigger contractions – Singapore, by 6 percent, Thailand by 5.7 percent.
Singapore, with its heavily trade dependent economy, appears to have suffered the most, along with countries with strong tourism sectors such as Thailand and the Philippines. The severity of the lockdowns imposed by each country was also seen as a big factor, with Indonesia opting only for a partial lockdown,
There is another economic study focused on the impact not on the national economy but on the people. This research brief by the Ateneo de Manila University cited the figures of the Philippine Statistics Authority that unemployment rate rose to 17.7 percent in April, 2020, from 5.1 percent in 2019, for an additional 5 million workers who lost their jobs. The study aired doubts about the official figures and said the true picture is even worse
In any case, the study said, there could be a big increase in the poverty gap and poverty severity this year. It said the government could soften the impact of this development with an improved social amelioration program and keeping food prices under control.
Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion said in another report that some 1.4 million people were displaced with the temporary closure of establishments, while around 600,000 reported reduced incomes. The hardest hit sectors were non-essential manufacturing, retail, clothing, fashion, exports, tourism, arts and entertainment, accommodation, food services, and construction. As many as 10 million could lose their jobs this year, according to the Department of Labor and Employment.
We are naturally concerned with the national economy and we hope it will be able to recover in the coming months. But we hope greater efforts will now go into helping the millions of common ordinary folk who lost their jobs and their regular incomes in these last few months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
