BY ELLALYN DE VERA-RUIZ
All tropical cyclone warnings have been lifted before Monday noon as storm “Rolly” (international name “Goni”) moves further away from the Philippines.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) estimated the center of Rolly around 195 kilometers (km) west of Subic, Zambales.
Should it maintain its westward track at 20 kph, it will be outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning.
Rolly has maintained its maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph.
It may remain as tropical storm throughout the forecast period, but PAGASA said there is also an increasing likelihood that Rolly will weaken into a tropical depression due to increasingly unfavorable conditions.
WHY ROLLY SPARED METRO MANILA
PAGASA weather specialist Chris Perez explained that a “cone of uncertainty” comes with forecast tracks as part of the country’s disaster preparedness.
“The area of probability from the center track of the cone could move more to the north or more to the south,” Perez said during a DZMM interview.
“So that either way, even if the cyclone is not exactly on the central track, areas within the cone of probability can prepare for a storm,” he added.
This is to prepare the public for the worst-case scenario.
Metro Manila, which was placed under Signal No. 4 after Rolly made its first landfall over Catanduanes, was within the cone of uncertainty.
But the track of Rolly moved more to the south of the cone of uncertainty, which was towards Batangas-Cavite area.
The strength of Rolly was also not sustained with its center a bit disorganized after making its fourth and final landfall over Lobo, Batangas, shortly before Sunday evening.
As of mid-Monday, areas with tropical cyclone warnings have been lifted, however, occasional gusts will still prevail over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and the northern portions of mainland Cagayan and Zambales.
Rough to very rough seas, with waves up to 2.8 to 4.5 meters may also prevail over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the western seaboard of Central Luzon.
Sea travel is still suspended over these waters. Weather conditions, especially in areas earlier affected by Rolly, can observe gradual improvement in the next few days.
The troughs of Rolly and tropical storm “Siony” (international “Atsani”) may bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Luzon.
Western Visayas, Central Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula may still experience scattered rain showers due to the trough or Rolly.
Meanwhile, localized thunderstorms may affect the rest of the country. (Ellalyn de Vera-Ruiz)
