By JHON ALDRIN CASINAS
The OCTA Research Group recommended Saturday the extension of the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces for one week.
“We strongly recommend that the national government prolong the ECQ in the NCR+ bubble for the full two weeks. It is now clear that a one-week ECQ will not be sufficient to reverse the surge and the pressure on our hospital system,” OCTA said.
OCTA Research fellow Prof. Ranjit Rye noted that if the reproduction number (R) does not drop dramatically in the next seven days, the government has to be prepared to consider an additional third week of ECQ.
“We urge the government to establish an exit strategy from the ECQ that will sustain the anticipated drop in the R,” Rye said, adding that the ECQ be followed by a Modified ECQ before downgrading to General Community Quarantine (GCQ).
“A step down approach so that we could sustain the gains we have achieved and of course the sacrificed we have achieved over the last two week,” he said.
After a week of an ECQ extension, Rye said the government should assess the effects of the restrictions before imposing another quarantine status.
“Premature opening to GCQ might make us lose the gains that we have achieved so far and may be even complicate the situation,” he said.
OCTA said the R – or the estimated number of people that a COVID-19 positive individual can infect – in Metro Manila is currently at 1.65.
Researchers projected that the R is estimated to drop to 1.33 by next week if the ECQ is extended for another week or mobility of people is minimized.
