The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration said majority of climate models suggest that El Niño is now in its “decaying” stage, returning to neutral condition, where neither El Niño nor La Niña prevails, next month.
According to PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section-Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Chief Analiza Solis, the weak El Niño, which has prevailed since February, will transition to neutral condition by next month.
“Neutral condition is favored to emerge in September 2019 until the first quarter of 2020,” she said.
In recent El Niño events, the effect of El Niño had a lingering effect that lasted a few months after returning to neutral phase, particularly manifested by fewer number of tropical cyclones entering the country’s area of responsibility.
In the next six months, PAGASA forecasts seven to 11 tropical cyclones that may enter or form inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
In particular, two to four tropical cyclones may form in August, and another two to four in September.
So far, the Philippines experienced below normal tropical cyclone activity this year, with only seven tropical cyclones that developed in the past seven months. Based on historical record, the country averages 20 tropical cyclones every year.
By August, Solis said generally near normal with patches of above normal rain condition is likely in some portions of Isabela, Metro Manila, Southern Luzon, and Bicol.
By September, rainfall condition will be generally near normal over most parts of the country, including Metro Manila.
The Ilocos region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Davao, Caraga, and most parts of Socsargen (Region 12) will have below normal rainfall, while above normal rainfall is likely over most of Southern Luzon.
Meanwhile, the water level at Angat Dam in Bulacan continues to decline due to insufficient rainfall over Central Luzon, particularly in the province.
Its current level of 161.36 meters is a little more than a meter above the critical level for water supply of 160 meters and way below the minimum operating level of 180 meters, National Water Resources Board Executive Director Sevillo David Jr. said. (Ellalyn Ruiz)
