BY GABRIELA BARON
A research group from the University of the Philippines (UP) believes the flattening of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) curve is “possible” by end of August or September.
Dr. Guido David of the UP OCTA Research Team said Monday that COVID-19’s reproduction rate – or the number of people infected by each person carrying the virus – went down to 1.1 from 1.5 after Metro Manila and four nearby provinces returned to the second strictest lockdown level earlier this month.
“Actually nung one week ago pa, nakikita na namin na bumabagal ‘yung trend sa buong Pilipinas nung reproduction number pati nga sa National Capital Region (NCR), bumababa na rin yung r nought natin, ngayon halos malapit na sya sa 1, ibig sabihin medyo malapit na tayong mag-flatten ng curve,” David told DZMM.
If the basic reproductive number (R0 or r nought) is greater than 1, the infection will spread exponentially. If R0 is less than 1, the infection will spread slowly and eventually die out. The higher value of the basic reproductive number, the faster an epidemic will progress.
“Ibig sabihin kumokonti na rin finally yung bilang ng kaso, sana magpatuloy na. Pwede pa kasing tumaas ito, pero sa nakita namin, bumababa na talaga yung trend,” he said.
“Sana ma-sustain natin yan, ma-flatten natin at mapababa na yung kaso sa NCR at sa CALABARZON (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon),” David added.
However, even after the curve has flattened, David said it may still take one or two more months before the number of cases a “very manageable” level.
David also advised the public to not be complacent, because a surge can still happen again.
“Hindi naman ibig sabihin, flatten yung curve, tapos na. Kaya kailangan talagang continuous effort natin. Hindi tayo pwedeng magpabaya kasi pwedeng magka-surge ulit yan,” he added.
The Philippines on Sunday reported 2,378 additional COVID-19 cases, the lowest one-day spike for new cases since July 29. (Gabriela Baron)
