OCTA predicts 10,000 COVID cases daily by end of March

By JHON ALDRIN CASINAS

The Philippines could have up to 10,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by the end of March if the current trend will remain the same, a member of an independent research group said Saturday.

Dr. Guido David of OCTA Research Group has also estimated that new cases of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region (NCR) could hit up to 5,000 cases by end of March.

“We’re likely going to see 5,000 cases in NCR alone by end of the month, and at least mga 10,000 cases sa buong Pilipinas (in the entire Philippines) by end of the month,” David said in an interview over ABS CBN’s TeleRadyo.

The research fellow noted that the reproduction number – or the average number of persons who may be infected by one COVID-19 positive individual – in Metro Manila was measured at around 1.95, and 1.68 for the entire country.

“The reality is medyo kinukulangan na tayo sa oras kasi ‘yung projections natin 10,000 cases by the end of the month,” he said. “Mukhang posible talaga aabutan ‘yun kung walang significant changes sa trend na mangyari,” he added.

The Philippines reported last March 19 its highest number of new COVID-19 cases since the start pandemic last year, with 7,103 new infections, which brought the nationwide tally of confirmed cases to 648,066.

 “We have a looming public health crisis kasi based sa mga projections natin, ‘yung hospitals baka mapuno sila in two weeks sa NCR and kung four weeks pa natin bago mapababa ‘yung cases, even with interventions, magkakaroon tayo ng public health crisis,”  David warned.